A KERRY LANDSLIDE?

A reader writes in to point to this article in the Washington Monthly. His comments:

Here's a link to an article that takes using the past to predict the future into a very silly territory, arguing that because of some mysterious Geist of history -- "elections are referenda on incumbents" or whatever -- that Bush will lose. Because some other incumbents lost before him. Actually, what little data the author provides suggests he may be right in his contention that the election will be a blow-out one way or another, but I suspect it'll be a Bush blowout, with the president winning by a large margin in the electoral college but only by a narrow margin of actual voters in contested states. (You see what I mean; he can win PA or FL by just a handful of votes and his electoral college total will swell quite nicely.) Why do I say this? Because Kerry is no Reagan or Clinton, both of whom were pretty good campaigners, and he's no Carter '76, either.